Mack Hollins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+122/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Mack Hollins has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 18th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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