Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-512).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -454 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -512.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mack Hollins has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Mack Hollins has accumulated many more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 14.6.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Mack Hollins's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 50.1% to 70.6%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) vs. wideouts this year (64.0%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.