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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+312/-565).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +324 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +312.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Mack Hollins has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

Mack Hollins has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (81.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).

Mack Hollins's 42.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.

The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (59.4%) to WRs this year (59.4%).

The Houston Texans defense has given up the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.20 per game this year.

The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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