Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+311/-565).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +325 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +311.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
Mack Hollins has accrued far more air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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