Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-428).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +319 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +259.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Mack Hollins has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.4% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
Mack Hollins has notched quite a few more air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 14.6.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.