Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+348/-676).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -628 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -676.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Mack Hollins to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.1% in games he has played).
Mack Hollins has compiled significantly more air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 14.6.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.6%) vs. wideouts this year (61.6%).
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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