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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+196/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.3% red zone pass rate.

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season (68.8%).

The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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