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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+185/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Mac Jones's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 72.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (68.4%).

The New York Jets defense has yielded the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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