This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.With a 50.3% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL in these cases has been the Patriots.The model projects Mac Jones to attempt 26.7 passes in this game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
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