Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+136/-189).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -189.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.5%).
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have utilized some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.5% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.