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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 50.2% red zone pass rate.

Mac Jones's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.3%.

Mac Jones has been among the bottom touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a terrible 0.85 per game while checking in at the 11th percentile.

The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football: 1.06 per game this year.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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