Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Mac Jones's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.6%.
Mac Jones has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.64 per game while checking in at the 11th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.07 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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