Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Mac Jones has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 68.7% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (74.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Patriots have been the least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 52.5% red zone pass rate.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Mac Jones has been among the worst TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.78 per game while checking in at the 19th percentile.

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