Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 40.9% run rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
The Buffalo Bills defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.34 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Mac Jones's ground effectiveness (3.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (21st percentile among QBs).
With an awful rate of 0.56 yards-after-contact (12th percentile), Mac Jones has been as one of the weakest rushing QBs in the league this year.
The Bills linebackers rank as the 7th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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