Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run on 44.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Favors Under

With a very bad record of 3.7 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (25th percentile), Mac Jones has been among the bottom running quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
With a very bad record of 0.64 yards-after-contact (16th percentile), Mac Jones rates as one of the worst running QBs in football this year.
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 100 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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