Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (127 per game) versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Mac Jones to earn 2.7 rush attempts this week, on average: the 8th-fewest of all QBs.
Mac Jones has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 0.82 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.

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