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Mac Jones

Mac Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Mac Jones has averaged 3.4 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in the NFL among QBs (76th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.37 yards-per-carry.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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