Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 4.95 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.
Mac Jones has grinded out a measly 6.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (22nd percentile).
Mac Jones's running efficiency (3.12 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (10th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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