Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (11.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Mac Jones's ground effectiveness (3.64 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile among QBs).
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 96 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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