Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (12.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.4% run rate.
Mac Jones's ground effectiveness (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (14th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 4.24 yards-per-carry.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 9th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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