Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (11.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots have utilized some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Mac Jones's ground effectiveness (3.80 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (6th percentile among quarterbacks).

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