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Mac Jones

Mac Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (11.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).

Mac Jones has run for significantly more yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).

Mac Jones's rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 4.49 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.16 mark last season.

The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 24th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.6% run rate.

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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