Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (11.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
Mac Jones has rushed for a lot more yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Mac Jones's ground efficiency has improved this year, notching 4.50 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.16 figure last year.
The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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