Mac Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 205.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 207.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 205.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.5 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Raiders defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

In this game, Mac Jones is expected by the predictive model to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.4.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
With a bad 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target (21st percentile) this year, Mac Jones ranks among the least efficient QBs in football.
This year, the strong Raiders defense has conceded a puny 212.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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