Mac Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 209.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 212.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 209.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mac Jones's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 72.0%.
The New York Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 6.84 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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