Mac Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Passing Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 202.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The Giants pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in football.
This year, the anemic Giants defense has given up the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a massive 5.52 YAC.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's collection of CBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects Mac Jones to attempt 26.7 passes in this game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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