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Mac Jones

Mac Jones Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 228.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Mac Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with an impressive 69.3% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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