Mac Jones Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.

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