Mac Jones Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Mac Jones has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 81st percentile when it comes to QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

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