Mac Jones Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-102/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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