Mac Jones Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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