Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Mac Jones has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 81st percentile when it comes to QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Mac Jones's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.5% to 67.5%.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Saints defense this year (65.1% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 9th-best in football.

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