Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Mac Jones to attempt 39.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Cowboys defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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