Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mac Jones's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.5% to 72.0%.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (68.4%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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