Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-116/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 32.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.