Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 38.8 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Mac Jones's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.3%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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