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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

Luke Musgrave has run a route on 63.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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