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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers will be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

With a high 63.9% Route Participation Rate (82nd percentile) since the start of last season, Luke Musgrave has been as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in football.

The Titans pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.9%) versus TEs since the start of last season (76.9%).

When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Tennessee's group of DEs has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 49.3% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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