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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers ranks as the 5th-best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (58.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Green Bay Packers.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

Luke Musgrave's 28.7% Route% this year reflects a material diminishment in his pass game utilization over last year's 65.4% rate.

Luke Musgrave's 1.0 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last year's 3.1 mark.

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