My Account Log Out

reorder

Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Eagles defense has been something of pass funnel last year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.8 per game) last year.

The model projects Luke Musgrave to accrue 4.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.

Luke Musgrave places in the 77th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 26.6 figure last year.

Luke Musgrave has been one of the top TEs in the pass game last year, averaging a terrific 3.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Packers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Green Bay Packers last year (a measly 56.8 per game on average).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been excellent last year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

More Luke Musgrave Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™