Luke Musgrave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
The projections expect Luke Musgrave to garner 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
With a sizeable 13.8% Target Rate (82nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave places as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.
Luke Musgrave checks in as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an outstanding 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).

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