Luke Musgrave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Luke Musgrave to garner 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Luke Musgrave has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 15.2% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
With an impressive 3.6 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave stands as one of the top pass-game TEs in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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