Luke Musgrave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football (62.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Green Bay Packers.
The projections expect Luke Musgrave to earn 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
With an elite 14.9% Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave places among the TEs with the most usage in the NFL.
The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Luke Musgrave comes in as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 3.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game.

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