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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

The projections expect Luke Musgrave to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.

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