Luke Musgrave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM EST

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects Luke Musgrave to garner 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
With an impressive 14.1% Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the league.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.
Luke Musgrave rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a remarkable 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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