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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

Luke Musgrave has run a route on 63.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

When it comes to air yards, Luke Musgrave grades out in the towering 81st percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 28.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

Since the start of last season, the stout Vikings defense has conceded a paltry 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-best in the league.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in football.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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