Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
The projections expect Luke Musgrave to garner 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
With a sizeable 13.8% Target Rate (82nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave places as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.
In regards to air yards, Luke Musgrave ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among TEs this year, accruing a staggering 28.0 per game.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (64.0) versus TEs this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).

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