Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to garner 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Luke Musgrave has been responsible for a whopping 18.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Luke Musgrave has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.39 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 5th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.54 seconds per play.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 27.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (54.4%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (54.4%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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