Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to notch 6.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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