Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects Luke Musgrave to garner 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
With an impressive 14.1% Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the league.
When talking about air yards, Luke Musgrave grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a monstrous 28.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
This year, the strong Steelers defense has conceded a feeble 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 7th-best in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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